The Dragon’s Strategy: Applying the 48 Laws of Power to China’s African Relations

• China has rapidly expanded its influence in Africa through strategic partnerships emphasizing infrastructure, non-interference, and soft power.

• This appeals to African states disillusioned by Western paternalism, reshaping global power dynamics on the continent.

• However, China's practices may conceal long-term asymmetries, including unequal contracts and covert surveillance.

• African policymakers must reassess legal safeguards and diversify partnerships to preserve autonomy and national interest.

“Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.” These words were thought to be Napoleon’s. In fact, the French emperor, known for his big ego and small size, foresaw one of the greatest long-term revolutions of today’s international system: the rise of the Chinese superpower.

When analyzing China’s strategic choices in its rise to power, its rationality might be the most obvious feature.

China's rationality includes many aspects that are particularly attractive to its newest partners, the African states. When analyzing the global power competition in Africa, especially China’s presence on the continent, one literary piece of work struck my mind: The 48 Laws of Power by Robert Greene (1998).

Greene states in the beginning of his book how core references, such as Machiavelli, inspired him. Additionally, it shares significant similarities with The Art of War by Sun-Tzu.

Therefore, my point is that China’s powerful political, economic, and even sociocultural position in today’s global system is a result of its strategic choices but also its knowledge of major fields such as economics or law.

So to explain it in a more entertaining way, let’s use some of the 48 laws of power. That will help us gain an in-depth understanding of China’s interest in Africa but also how it concretizes it.

Background and Analysis: Law 5: So much depends on reputation; guard it with your life.

It is tacit knowledge that in the international system’s play, the role that will be given to you is the role that you project as an international player.

Throughout the centuries, China constructed a stellar reputation that can be traced back to the Empire of China, which lasted for more than 2000 years. Moreover, the imperial power was linked to China's influence on international trade, particularly through the Silk Road. However, China’s reputation got more and more powerful, especially with its gain of economic weight in international trade after the late 1970s economic reforms.

Today, China is considered to be the second largest economic power after the US and, in fact, the only state that can compete with it. The People's Republic of China also holds the largest foreign-owned American dollar reserve.

Therefore, China has successfully constructed the personal reputation of an “economic dragon.”

Law 9: Win through your actions, never through argument.

When it comes to interactions between China and Africa, China presents itself as a completely different partner. China, in contrast to Western powers such as the US, has perfectly understood the needs and expectations of African countries when collaborating with them. Ex-colonies have grown weary of the West's lengthy moralizing speeches. They are tired of the values that are, at their core, insightful and respectful of the human condition worldwide. Therefore, the “ick” (“turn-off” in Z slang) does not lie in the content (at least the biggest part of it, but the conformity of “universal” values given by the West to the Global South is yet another debate), but in the form and the way in which the statements are presented.

For example, between January and February 2016, both the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi, and the Secretary of State of the United States, John Kerry, gave speeches at the African Union’s headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. US officials talked about security, counterterrorism, and the issue of journalists imprisonment in Africa.

The Chinese official, as opposed to its American adversary, talked about creating infrastructures and enhancing cooperation with China. All of these initiatives are in order to develop the economy of the African continent.

When it comes to these two speeches, there is no need for any deep analysis to see with whom Africa would want to collaborate more.

In that case, China “understood the assignment” and shaped its African strategy away from the original Western way of doing things in Africa. How? China understood that the African states wanted partnerships and interactions where all parties would be on an equal footing, without any paternalistic discourse.

Furthermore, the African states wanted to be recognized as more than just a collection of corrupt nations plagued by terrorism, hunger, and political instability. African states want a partner who treats them with objectivity. By “objectivity,” I mean an absence of colonial biases and generalized Western stereotypes, without forgetting the needs and the socio-economic challenges of the continent.

In response, China proposed a solution that would minimize any possible misinterpretation: concrete actions. In fact, by taking concrete actions following its speeches, China strengthens its reputation by avoiding any "fake promises."

However, these actions are only a short-term response to the African state's strong will for change. In the long term, China’s initiatives and projects in Africa don’t turn out to be the “happy ever after” being promised to the host states.

Risks and Implications: Law 14: Pose as a Friend, Work as a Spy”

This last law of power effectively illustrates the strategic plot twist employed by China. As a rational state, China will always put its interests first, and by interests, I mean the Chinese interests that are strictly economical and political. In more detail, that means developing China’s position in the world economy and preserving Chinese political interests such as its sovereignty over Taiwan and the South China Sea territories.

Therefore, it is slightly different from other Western states in that it includes respect for human rights and political criteria, such as liberty of speech or democracy. In the case of China, there are no conditions whatsoever to collaborate with them.

However, China’s initiatives in Africa lack ethics without being legally invalid or forbidden. For instance, when entering into a contract with any state, a clause stipulates that the Chinese contractual party will inherit the original contract.

That clause is quite dangerous for the injured party to the contract. Let’s take an example to illustrate that point.

In 2008, the DRC and China signed a deal regarding rare earth elements. In fact, the agreement stipulated that both parties would reap benefits totaling 7 billion dollars. China would receive its rare earth (cobalt), while the DRC would benefit from infrastructure improvements. As the years went on, China got a volume of cobalt valued at a billion dollars, and the DRC only got infrastructure with an 800 million dollar value.

Furthermore, the African Union headquarters in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, was built through a major Chinese financial effort in aid (200 million dollars) and expertise. However, in January 2018, researchers discovered that the AU headquarters were brimming with listening devices. These devices were, according to a press report by Le Monde, taking the AU data and transmitting it nightly to Chinese servers. However, the AU acknowledged a security issue but denied any intentional espionage.

However, the African states contracted with a free will to these treaties, so no one can be blamed but themselves.

Therefore, this analysis makes us think twice when it comes to dealing with China.